Discussion: A few intense showers is expected to develop across South Ireland, England which will bring the risk of the odd lightning strike or so. Whereas, a few thunderstorms could be seen across the AOI but saturation is very high therefore a LOW Risk day only. Lightning is expected to be low overall today, possibly around 1-10 by the end of the day. Very uncertain though!
Technical Discussion: There may be a few sporadic strikes from frontal rain across the UK and a few showers in Ireland. Perhaps a higher chance of lightning in the SE and central south England, south of Wales and southern Ireland, but even then the chance is weak. Vorticity helping tower development with slightly more CAPE in certain areas within the frontal rain, may allow energy to reach perhaps 600-900 J/KG of MUCAPE. High saturation should keep lightning down to 1 or 2 strikes in areas though. A few showers behind the system may form in the south with rising CAPE right along the south coast with a secondary lobe of vorticity. However, there's not enough support for anything particularly worthy of an upgrade along the south coast.