Discussion: During Tuesday early hours, a low pressure will approach from the South of Ireland introducing heavy & intense rain across S parts of Ireland which would of cleared North by the early morning period across Northern Ireland. The odd isolated lightning from this front cannot be ruled out throughout the early hours of Tuesday. Heading into the early morning period, we are expecting to see an increase of Cape of anywhere from 100J/KG-400J/KG across S parts of Ireland with intense showers increasing in activity. This may bring the odd one or two thunderstorms in the morning across S & SW parts of Ireland, however lightning will mainly remain isolated & sporadic. Into the late morning/early afternoon, Cape will drastically become more widespread mainly across the AOI "Area Of Interest" Zone up to 300J/KG - 600J/KG which will increase the risk of lightning across Ireland. We are interested that Cork up to past Galway will see the most activity within Ireland. This risk will continue into the evening, with further sporadic lightning expected, however one or two thunderstorms may develop for a time. Into the late evening/ night time period, the risk of heavy showers will head north clipping parts of Cornwall which may bring a few lightning strikes due to Cape around 200-400J/KG, however confident is quite low on this. Our attention then shifts towards parts of South East England into East Anglia, where surface based thunderstorms are expected to develop across NE France where 500-1200J/KG sits which these storms will advect north. Based on recent model output, these storms are likely to become elevated throughout its course north however will miss out on affecting EA. Their is a low risk of it slightly being further W than expected clipping EA & SE England, which is why a low risk covers these areas just in case. There is a chance further showers may develop throughout the night bringing the risk of isolated lightning across EA, however confidence has changed towards no activity across EA.
