Verification: Rating: 6/10
Discussion: Scattered showers will develop in the early afternoon across parts of Ireland ,NW Scotland, and Devon, turning thundery in places. CAPE will reaches 700-1200J/kg during the afternoon, perhaps allowing some well scattered thunderstorms to develop in places. These thunderstorms might bring some localised flooding especailly over the convergence zones. High PWAT (25-30mm) can also boost the risk of flooding. Elevated thunderstorms are also possible across parts of Midlands and East Anglia during early evening to early night. Hail showers are also possible within the heaviest showers as well. Funnel clouds are also possible in places. Wrote: @Handry_Outlook
Technical Discussion: Strengthening moisture push over Ireland and the UK will allow for 1500 J/KG of SBCAPE across a lot of Ireland tomorrow and some parts of the UK seeing 800 J/KG of SBCAPE. Mainly across Wales, perhaps the midlands into the northeast and northern Scotland. A convergence zone forming along the south coast may force just enough energy for another zone of convection along the central south. Some embedded thunder in frontal rain with energy forming over east Anglia is possible as well. All during the afternoon and lasting into the evening. Weak shearing again should keep it to popcorn shower and storm formation and severe prospects on the lower end of the scale. However, 1/2 to maybe 3/4 an inch hail is possible with the energy available and weak low-level shearing but mainly the fairly strong buoyancy mainly over Ireland. Along with some flooding especially in Ireland with storms going over some areas throughout the afternoon with torrential rain possible given the potential avaliable moisture. Lightning is likely to be sporadic to semi-frequent again, most likely to be higher end over Ireland. And given the multiple storms going over some areas throughout the afternoon and into the evening, there could be lots of lightning seen for parts probably around Central Ireland and parts of northern Ireland.