Verification:
Thunderstorms & intense cells developed across England, Wales, Ireland & Scotland throughout Thursday. Sporadic lightning particularly isolated lightning was detected across England, Wales, Scotland, which was expected.
Thunderstorms broke out especially in the SLGHT zone in Ireland which was very well placed by the team, this area saw the most lightning activity due to multiple convergence zone which forced intense cells to develop within an area of instability which exceeded 600J/KG CAPE.
Overall, every risk was placed very well especially the SLGHT Risk which certainly couldn't have been placed any better. Rating: 9.5/10
Discussion: A trough will head into SE/E England during the morning of Thursday which may bring a few isolated lightning strikes across the Extreme SE, however risk is relatively low. As this tracks W/NW towards Wales, showers are expected to develop across England & Wales alongside instability being present. MU Cape looks to sit around 200-500J/KG across England, which may allow sporadic and isolated lightning, possibly the odd thunderstorm. The risk across Ireland is much greater due to higher amounts of Cape, less saturated as well as convergence zones which will force showers to develop. A SLGHT Risk has been issued as this area involves MU Cape of around 500-800J/KG, convergence zones & most if not all showers will track into the SLGHT zone throughout the afternoon / evening. This may mean places within the SLGHT may see more than 1 thunderstorm throughout Thursday. Lightning may become semi frequent at times possibly affecting the same places more than once. An Area Of Interest (AOI) + LOW risk was issued across W & Central past of Scotland as MU Cape is expected to rise to around 400-700J/KG allowing for intense cell development. Lightning may also become semi frequent within this area, however we aren't to confident on this so we only suspect sporadic lightning will occur.
