Discussion:
Throughout the day across Scotland & SW England, intense showers are expected to form which may bring the a couple isolated lightning strikes.
Across Scotland, CAPE levels are expected to rise drastically going into the afternoon where intense showers will break out. CAPE will be at around 200-500J/KG, which may allow the odd or couple of thunderstorms to develop, mainly across the AOI (Area of interest)
Behind an occluded front across SW Eng, CAPE will also build up to around 100-300J/KG which brings the risk of the odd or few isolated lightning strikes. Heavy & intense showers will develop behind the front, whether these produce lightning or not is a different question. The risk for SW Eng, is very low & we are not to confident on it.
Our attention then flips towards the Eng Channel in the night, a low pressure will track into Bay of Biscay (NW France). This will bring some instability across the channel at around 100-300J/KG which may allow a few lightning strikes from the intense showers in the channel. These showers are expected to stay in the channel & not affecting S Coast till tomorrow morning which another outlook will be published.
Overall: Isolated lightning strikes expected across SW Eng with the odd maybe couple of thunderstorms across Scotland throughout the day.
