Discussion: During the early hours of Saturday, a few intense showers may develop across NE/N Eng, Scotland which may bring a few isolated lightning strikes. A bit uncertainty how much lightning activity will be within these showers, however we suspect there could be lightning strikes at times as cape levels seem likely to sit around 200-400J/KG. During the late morning / early afternoon, we should see 2 areas of interest from across parts of Scotland & SE/S England where sporadic lightning may occur. Showers will develop across S/SE England before tracking N/NW where further showers may develop which may bring the odd couple of isolated lightning strikes. An area of interest has been put out as most models are suggesting Cape around 300-600J/KG alongside with intense shower development. A thunderstorm or few may develop for a time within this area during the afternoon period. Our attention will also focus across parts of Scotland, where Cape is also expected to be around 200-400J/KG with some models suggesting higher, however i think its safe to say this is an outlier. Heavy intense showers are expected to develop and become slowly moving across the AOI. A few lightning strikes may be embedded within these showers, possibly the odd thunderstorm. Their is a risk of the AOI across the South being upgraded to a SLGHT, however confidence on lightning remains relatively low. An update may follow.
