Verification: As expected, pulse type storms developed across N England where a SLGHT was issued, alongside further storms which developed within the AOI across W Midlands into SW England. However, activity didn't really fire up across SE/E England due to the showers in the morning were slightly further north than expected which was a limiting factor for developments. Overall, we could've issued a SLGHT across W Mid into SW Eng but confidence was pretty low on this. We are happy with our verification, a good forecast! Overall: 7/10
Discussion: Widespread intense & heavy showers are expected to develop today alongside with CAPE up to 400-800J/KG. This will bring the risk of sporadic lightning strikes mainly remaining isolated across England, Scotland & parts of Ireland. North England looks to have the greatest risk as CAPE is expected to be around 500-1000J/KG which will bring the risk of more semi frequent lightning across this area. Multiple convergence lines will force these showers to develop & will keep them stationary for a period of time, which introduces the risk of flooding. Therefore, a SVR has been issued to cover this off. Several other convergence lines are expected across Wales, S England however the risk & confidence on these pulse-type storm is very low therefore two area of interest has been issued. We can only see a few lightning strikes occurring from these showers maybe one or two thunderstorms may develop.
Technical Discussion: A convergence zone may force showers along an increasingly moist airmass zone, some of which may become thunderstorms. With strong lapse-rates helping lift at the surface helped by surface heating which also forces 100+ J/KG of 3CAPE and 600+ J/KG of MLCAPE. Weak shearing keeps the showers pulse-type and limits their height potential and also ability to become significant. Hail risk is relatively low then despite helpful background signals, mostly 1-2cm hail appears possible. Saturation is high limiting lightning risk despite strong showers being possible. With weak CAPE and small storms heights, the lightning risk appears to be rather sporadic and unorganised.