Discussion: Instability will still exhibit across England during Monday allowing some heavy showers to form, however, because CAPE is weak & quite patchy at around 200-500J/KG therefore only a few CG lightning strikes can be expected. In Scotland, there is a greater risk as CAPE sits at around 200-700J/KG quite widely allowing for some intense showers to initiate. These showers may develop into thunderstorms, particularly across the AOI zone. Lightning will most likely stay sporadic, possibly becoming increased in activity at times but confidence on this is relatively low. We did not to decide to issue a SLGHT risk across Scotland due to the high saturation profiles which will limit the lightning activity.
