Discussion: Scattered showers will develop in the early afternoon across southern parts of Ireland and Scotland, turning thundery. CAPE will reaches 700-1200J/kg during the afternoon, perhaps allowing some well scattered thunderstorms to develop in places. These thunderstorms might bring some localised flooding especially over the convergence zones. High PWAT (30mm) can also boost the risk of flooding. Hail showers are also possible within the heaviest showers as well. Funnel clouds are also possible in places. Wrote: @Handry_Outlook
Technical Discussion: Fairly widespread thunderstorm development and semi-frequent lightning rates are possible in Ireland during Monday afternoon and into the evening, perhaps a few storms lingering in the NW and northern Ireland later on with slightly strong shearing available for the storms to use. Small hail and some small scale flooding are also possible. Strong lapse-rates will help force 600-1400 J/KG of SBCAPE during daytime heating as moisture converge mainly in western Ireland with some remaining further east where lapse-rates are similar for smaller scale developments in southern and far eastern Ireland. Perhaps 1 or two forming in western parts of Scotland, Wales and England. But weaker lightning prospects with those. Weak shearing and fairly high saturation may limit lightning though. Hence only semi-frequent with 9.5 to perhaps 10km tall storms most likely in northwestern Ireland and western parts of northern Ireland for the strongest lightning frequency rates. Lapse-rates are favourable for hail but shearing is mainly held in the low-levels and the short-lived nature of these storms should keep the hail fairly low. Perhaps half an inch is possible. Storms may also train over an area, hence a local scale flooding risk is there.