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Convective Outlook - Friday 3rd May 2024 ⚡

Discussion: Another Theta E+ (35-40c) air will advect from Benelux towards NE England throughout tonight. As this tracks NW, Cape will be present at around 500-1200J/KG which will allow elevated storms to keep develop and maintain strength. Later tonight, at around 21:00 - 01:00, this Theta E+ will start to exit Benelux alongside with the elevated storms. Their is a risk across SE England of elevated thunderstorms developing which may give semi frequent lightning, however confidence is quite low on this. During the early hours of Friday, 02:00 - 06:00 , the elevated storms may track into N possibly E parts of East Anglia however a lot of uncertainty as it may just stay slightly offshore. If this elevated storm does head into EA, lightning activity may become frequent at times. In the Morning of Friday, the elevated storms alongside the unstable air should start to track into NE England. This should allow further thunderstorm & shower development along the coast tracking W/NW which may also bring frequent lightning at times. As these showers & storms track further west, lightning activity should start to decrease. During the afternoon, the risk of sporadic lightning still remains with the risk increasing across Scotland. Some models are showing a bit of uncertainty with the timing of when the unstable air arrives (Theta E+), when the elevated storms arrive. As this will all correlate to how early shower and storm development is across NE England.

Technical Discussion: A new Theta-E centre of advection glides NW towards Lincolnshire and the NE of England, perhaps into Southern Scotland. Early to mid morning showers and storms should start forming by the coast, perhaps clustering up for a time. With 400+ J/KG of MLCAPE and modest lift there is risk for some sporadic to semi frequent lightning. However saturation is high. Lightning risk is likely to be limited but alternatively storms could be quite tall, up to around 9km. So it's a balance. Hail has a small chance of forming because the height of freezing is still relatively low. Weak CAPE and poor shearing limit it to small sized hail though. Main risk is semi-frequent lightning mid to late morning in the slight risk moving NW and weakening into the afternoon with more trailing behind but weaker further. Some heavy rainfall possible within the stronger storms in the NE as well. Clustering risks a small chance of flash flooding in bigger clusters.

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