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Convective Outlook - Saturday 20th July:



In depth discussion:


Convective Outlook⚡️


During Saturday, risk of isolated lightning sporadically forming in a small pool of energy in the SW later into the morning and perhaps lingering into the afternoon. Before the risk of isolated storms moving into somewhere between the central south and the north sea with a lot of changing between the models for now, in the late evening and perhaps overnight.


MUCAPE in excess of 800 J/KG sliding with the slowly northward ejecting Theta-E airmass because of the large upper trough with the centre of the lower part over the northern part of the Bay of Biscay but the low's actual centre at the surface being north of Scotland.


Rising surface pressure over the Bay of Biscay leading to a large capping over much of western France and the Bay of Biscay. Which should theoretically only allow buoyancy to form large enough for thunderstorm formation post-boundary layer and lead to elevated thunderstorms somewhere over northern France. Perhaps moving over the channel and into the south/southeast during Saturday night.


However,the very northeast Bay of Biscay low, usually centred further southwest, feels like it'll lead to initiation over northeast France and more likely to push into the north sea if formation can take place. It's a small thing to keep an eye on though, especially if the trough becomes centred further southwest.


Isolated storms forming during the afternoon across lots of parts of the country. Unlikely to be that much lightning with fairly weak energy. However the NE has the best chance of organisation with better moisture convergence and therefore energy. Perhaps lightning getting semi-frequent for a time.

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