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Convective Outlook - Monday 13th May 2024

Discussion: Throughout Monday afternoon/evening, as a front sweeps across SW England & Ireland ahead of it lies some instability which will allow cells to break out across W Scotland which may bring the odd / couple of lightning strikes. Behind the low, Cape levels is expecting to rise in the SW corner of Ireland up to around 300J/KG which will also allow cell development alongside the lightning risk. We are only expecting the odd isolated lightning strike or couple. Overall both of the low risks which have been issued are at (5-10%), so we aren't to confident if any lightning will be produced. However the potential is there which is risk worthy.


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